Changes in maximum temperatures in Hillah according to regional climate change scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31185/wjfh.Vol21.Iss4.1195Keywords:
Climate change, maximum temperatures, SDSM, CMIP5, RCP scenarios, statistical downscalingAbstract
This study aims to analyze the change in expected maximum temperatures in Hillah City, Babil Governorate, by comparing climate data for 1990–2024 with projections for 2025–2050 under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). It draws on data from global climate models endorsed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which were statistically downscaled to the local level using the SDSM technique and compared with the baseline period (1990–2024). The average maximum temperature during the baseline reached about 31.2 °C, while future projections show higher values of 32.3 °C for RCP2.6, 32.5 °C for RCP4.5, and 32.8 °C for RCP8.5. These results reflect a rising thermal effect over time linked to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Although the numerical differences are modest, the changes indicate an upward trend and marked fluctuations in some years, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario, which is characterized by more severe climatic conditions.
Downloads
References
- المصادر:
1. الكوران, محمد حسن ولي. 2025. تأثير التغير المناخي في التطرف الحراري خلال فصل الصيف في محافظة واسط. مجلة العلوم الأساسية، العدد 25, 147-163.
https://doi.org/10.31185/bsj.Vol17.Iss25.881
2. مهدي، رافد صالح. تحليل تأثير التغير المناخي على الخصائص الكمية للأمطار والجفاف اليومية في العراق. مجلة واسط للعلوم الإنسانية، (21) 2, 193-272 .
https://doi.org/10.31185/wjfh.Vol21.Iss2.895
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
4. Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., & Rose, S. K. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109(1–2), 5–31.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
5. Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Zittis, G. (2016). Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Climatic Change, 137, 245–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
6. Ali, S. H., & Al-Qubaa, A., &Basil.A (2024). Climate Change and its Potential Impacts on Iraqi Environment, 3rd Scientific Conference of Iraqi Desert Geology (IDGC 2023) IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1300 (2024) 012010, 1–13.
https:// doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1300/1/012010
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Asst. Prof. Dr. Nadia Hatim Tu'mah Al-Atabi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
