Exaggeration of Epidemic and Famine Statistics and Their Horrors in the Mamluk Era

Abstract

This research refutes the exaggeration and hyperbole in   health and social historical narratives, focusing on the Mamluk period (648–923 AH / 1250–1517 AD) in Egypt and the Levant. During this era, some contemporary chroniclers inflated numbers of epidemic deaths and famines, negatively affecting historical documentation, reflecting personal biases, and fueling collective panic. The study utilizes the critical rules established by historian Ibn Khaldun (d. 808 AH) in his Muqaddimah to scrutinize the imaginary figures in previous accounts, applying them to Mamluk-era plague fatalities and food shortages. It concludes that exaggerating epidemic and famine figures was not merely a literary device to describe disasters, but a methodological tool resulting from the absence of statistical investigation instruments or driven by political stances toward the ruling authority.