Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Quantitative Characteristics of Daily Rainfall and Drought in Iraq

Abstract

   Climate change is considered one of the most prominent environmental issues causing global and local concern, as its impacts vary across regions. Among the significant effects it induces are changes in rainfall patterns and daily drought periods. This aspect has not received sufficient attention in scientific research, particularly in Iraq. In this context, the researcher studied and analyzed several climate indices, such as (RX1day, HDR/ASY, SDII, CWD, CDD, R10 mm, R20 mm), to understand their impact on rainfall and daily drought patterns in Iraq during the period from 1955 to 2023. The study included three stations representing different regions of Iraq: Mosul in the north, Baghdad-Airport in the center, and Basra-Al-Hussein in the south. The results revealed that the semi-arid regions of Iraq were more affected by climate changes compared to the arid regions. A decline in the number of rainy days and an increase in daily drought periods were observed. The study also showed a significant increase in the length and intensity of drought periods, alongside a change in rainfall patterns, with rain becoming less consistent but more intense and extreme. This shift contributed to a significant proportion of the total annual rainfall.T hese changes highlight potential environmental and economic impacts, including increased risks of floods and flash floods, soil erosion, vegetation degradation, and crop destruction. This can be attributed to prolonged drought periods combined with intense rainfall over short periods, which hinder the replenishment of surface and groundwater resources that primarily rely on moderate and consistent rainfall.