The Impact of the Geographic Unit of Analysis on Representing Population Growth Maps: An Applied Study of the MAUP Problem in Diyala Governorate for the Period (1977–1997)

Abstract

This study evaluates how the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) influences the mapping of population growth in Diyala Governorate between 1977 and 1997 by comparing administrative units with higher-resolution grid cells. Census data and GIS-based spatial analytical tools were employed to examine how scale and zoning affect the visibility of demographic patterns. The findings show that district-level analysis produces an overly uniform spatial picture that masks internal variation, whereas sub-district units reveal clear clusters of high growth in urbanized centers and low-growth clusters in peripheral areas historically affected by out-migration. Grid-cell analysis sharpened these contrasts: coarse grids smoothed differences, while 1 km cells exposed fine-scale structures and localized demographic shifts not visible at broader scales. The study concludes that high-resolution grids provide a more accurate and unbiased representation of spatial growth and stresses the need for multi-scale approaches when interpreting population dynamics to avoid distortions caused by MAUP.